全球价值链下中国增加值贸易的核算及网络特征研究

基于投入产出模型和社会网络分析，利用世界投入产出表相关数据，对2000—2014年中国的增加值贸易进行核算，并分析全球增加值贸易的网络特征。研究结果显示：（1）从出口目的地来看，中国向美国、日本、德国等国家的增加值出口较大；（2）从行业来看，中国的纺织业、除汽车和摩托车之外的其他产品批发业、采矿业等行业的增加值出口较大；（3）根据网络密度的计算结果，世界范围的各国（地区）贸易联系程度在增强；（4）中国的相对点度数和点强度有上升的趋势，而日本和美国有下降的趋势，说明中国在世界增加值贸易格局中的地位在提升，不过美国仍在世界增加值贸易格局中占据主导地位；（5）核心边缘分析结果表明核心国家（地区）的数目经历了先增加后减少的过程，边缘国家（地区）数目则先减少后增加。其中，中国的核心度一直在增加，日本和美国的核心度呈现下降的趋势。因此，为了扩大增加值贸易，增强国际贸易的话语权，中国政府有必要采取调整进出口税率等政策，并重视与美国等国家的双边贸易合作，以实现双赢的结果。     

Aid for trade and the quality of exports

This article studies how aid for trade (AfT) affects the quality of recipient countries’ exports. It shows that the quality effect is most discernible for AfT for assistance in trade policy: a 50% increase in the value of AfT received in this category is associated with a 0.5–1% increase in the quality of exports to the donor and other OECD countries. On average, the actual AfT received for assistance in trade policy leads to a 2% upgrade of the recipient country in the quality ladder of all developing countries. Around half of this quality effect is driven by the quality improvement of continued products in continued markets (intensive margin), and the other half by the quality upgrading of new products in continued markets and existing products in new markets (extensive margin).     

Access to Finance,Financial Development and Firm Ability to Export: Experience from Asia–Pacific Countries

With particular reference to Asia–Pacific countries, the present study examines how access to finance and financial development affects firms’ ability to enter export markets. Using firm‐level data from the World Bank Enterprises Survey, we found that access to finance plays a significant role in improving firms’ ability to export. In addition, development of the financial sector fosters export market entry. Among the financial development indicators, reach of the banking sector variable is most prominent. The present study suggests that improvements in access to finance and financial development (increases in the reach of the banking sector) enable firms operating away from capital or major cities to enter export markets easily. The present study supports policy intervention to strengthen access to the financial sector, which would encourage firms to export, and to facilitate export market entry for remotely located firms.     

Does the US EXIM Bank really promote US exports?

This paper investigates the impact of US Export‐Import Bank (EXIM ) on US exports particularly in the wake of international competition from foreign national export credit agencies (ECA s). We employ a gravity framework on a country‐industry‐year‐level panel data set that matches EXIM authorisations with US bilateral exports. Our results depict the general ineffectiveness of the Bank in promoting exports within and across industries. Some heterogeneities behind the general finding are also uncovered: industries other than aerospace parts and products are more likely to benefit from EXIM authorisations, and EXIM authorisations to larger businesses seem to be more effective in encouraging exports. Furthermore, we find no evidence that EXIM encourages US exports by offsetting foreign ECA competition. These results are neither affected by competing countries’ membership to the OECD Arrangement nor by the size of American firms that received EXIM support. Our results cast doubt on the ubiquitously positive claims made by the Bank and its supporters, yet also provide policy lessons for countries that are either in the inception stages of establishing their own ECA s or are now placing greater importance on ECA financing in encouraging exports.     

Do U.S. citizens support government intervention in agriculture? Implications for the political economy of agricultural protection

The persistence of agricultural protectionism throughout the world is intriguing given the widely recognized benefits of free trade. The political economy literature over the last decades has considered groups’ interest, politicians’ preferences, and their interactions within domestic politics as the primary forces driving agricultural protection. Yet, a growing body of studies suggests that it would be judicious to weigh in consumers’ or taxpayers’ perspectives in deciphering the nature of agricultural protection. This study examines U.S. citizens’ preferences about government intervention in agriculture and trade. Results show that they are in strong support of agricultural protection and their perceptions of national food security, family farms, environmental sustainability, and multifunctionality of agriculture play a significant role in shaping their support/opposition toward government intervention. The conventional political economy literature theorizes that consumers or taxpayers would oppose public policies that increase their tax burden; however, in the case of the farm sector, they have little incentive to voice their objections given the costs of farm programs are spread across a large number of consumers and taxpayers. U.S. citizens’ support for government involvement in agriculture as reported in this and other prior studies does not lend support for such political economy explanation.     

On the predictability of the distribution of excess returns in currency markets

This paper investigates the predictability of foreign exchange (FX) volatility and liquidity risk factors on returns to the carry trade, an investment strategy that borrows in currencies with low interest rates and invests in currencies with high interest rates. Previous studies have suggested that this predictability could have been spuriously accounted for due to the persistence of the predictors. The analysis uses a predictive quantile regression model developed by Lee (2016) that allows for persistent predictors. We find that predictability changes remarkably across the entire distribution of currency excess returns. Predictability weakens substantially in the left tail once persistence is accounted for, implying a moderate negative predictive relation between FX volatility risk and carry trade returns. By contrast, it becomes stronger in the right tail. Furthermore, we provide evidence that FX volatility risk still dominates liquidity risk after controlling for persistence. These findings suggest that the persistence of the predictors needs to be taken into account when one measures predictability in currency markets. Finally, out-of-sample forecast performance is also presented.     

Banking integration in ASEAN-6: An empirical investigation

Banking integration is widely considered as the last stepping stone of economic integration, especially at the regional level. This paper aims to introduce extended measures of banking openness and the overall balanced degree of integration through capital flows. Using the quarterly data from the ASEAN-6 economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) from 1996Q4 to 2016Q4, the obtained empirical results reveal that: (i) the degree of banking openness, which measures the total inflows and outflows divided by the total banking assets of the given country, remains low and even slightly decreases, despite the increasing cross-border banking and greater economic links among ASEAN-6; (ii) the overall degree of balance, which calculates the balance and the diversification of outward and inward integration, fluctuates over time but reaches the well-balanced level. Furthermore, the research highlights main drivers of the banking integration in this region, such as regulatory quality, bank size and the global credit risk. These findings have important policy implications for banking stability and integration in ASEAN-6.     

Threshold effect of economic openness on bank risk-taking: Evidence from emerging markets

This paper investigates the non-linear effects of two aspects of economic openness, namely, trade openness and financial openness, on banking system stability. We use a panel of 42 emerging markets from 2000 to 2014 to test whether bank risk-taking behaviour varies with the level of openness. We find that a higher degree of trade openness promotes bank stability linearly. Conversely, the non-linear effect of financial openness on bank risk-taking is evident. When the financial system is not sufficiently open, the impact of financial openness on bank stability is insignificant. However, as the domestic financial market becomes more open, financial openness can help discipline the behaviour of banks, making them more stable. We also find evidence that these effects are transmitted through the market discipline channel. Our findings highlight the importance of strengthening the domestic regulatory framework and transparency as the economy becomes more integrated.     

“新冠肺炎”疫情对我国外贸和就业的冲击及纾困举措

“新冠肺炎”疫情对我国外贸和就业产生何种冲击?本文认为,此次疫情已给我国外贸和就业以及全球产业链和供应链带来严重不利的冲击,需要保持中国出口增长,以支撑进口和就业增长,平稳产业链。此次疫情下我国的内外部经贸环境更加严峻,与2003年“非典”时有着很大的不同。稳就业是当务之急,而稳外贸、稳外资是稳就业的关键支撑力。此次疫情加剧了我国巨量高校毕业生叠加农村城镇化大量人口的就业压力。纾困举措:(1)稳定出口市场维护全球供应链,发挥市场机制的有效配置作用;(2)遏制住疫情,运用财政和货币政策对企业减税降费、增加市场流动性,降低成本和扩大消费;(3)帮助企业有序复工复产,提升营商环境,通过稳外贸和稳外资提升就业;(4)大力提升贸易投资便利化和公共产品服务来支持企业开拓市场;(5)教育部可根据高校实际招生能级,授权其适度增加研究生招生比重来缓解毕业生集中就业压力。     

The Impact of Public Expenditure and International Trade on Agricultural Productivity in China

The “industry nurturing agriculture” reforms and World Trade Organization accession led to dramatic growth in public expenditure and international trade in China’s agricultural sector. This article aims to estimate the effects of public expenditure and trade on agricultural productivity in China for 2004–2015. A semi-parametric production function with shape constraints is introduced to derive more accurate productivity before the productivity determinants are analyzed with an emphasis on public expenditure and trade. The empirical result shows that public expenditure and exports can effectively improve agricultural productivity, while imports have no significant effects. Policy implications are discussed in the context of supply-side reforms.